Nonviolent Change Journal

Although the war in Liberia is over, another bush rebellion - this one led by the forces of ousted President Charles Taylor - is a future possibility.

Analysis

Some 600 soldiers - members of the West African peacekeeping force deployed in Liberia - began moving into Kakata, 30 miles northeast of the coastal capital, Monrovia, on Sept. 9. The soldiers were trying to quell ongoing fighting between the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) rebels and forces of exiled Liberian President Charles Taylor. As the peacekeepers pushed farther into the hinterland, the fighting units were moving further into the bush, continuing their clashes as they went. The ongoing battles mark a transformation of the conflict in Liberia. Although the war waged by the LURD and Liberia's other main rebel group, the Movement for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL), against government forces was ended by an Aug. 18 cease-fire and Taylor's subsequent exile to Nigeria, the former government forces are giving rise to a new rebel group. These soldiers likely will move to establish bases in the countryside, launching raids and attacks against the LURD, MODEL and peacekeeping forces.

This conflict reflects a much larger power struggle between Liberia and its neighbors - Burkino Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea and Sierra Leone. Guinea allegedly backs the LURD, the government in Cote d'Ivoire is thought to support MODEL and - although the government in Ouagadougou denies it - Burkino Faso has been linked repeatedly to Taylor. Ethnic rivalries also play a role in the violence. Most of the LURD rebels are Mandingo, while MODEL is Khahn and Taylor's group is Americo-Liberian. These groups compete for control over the country's lucrative shipping registry industry, timber revenues and other industries.

The tribal competition and the involvement of outside powers will continue to fuel the conflict in the bush, even as calm returns to the cities on the coast. Currently, Taylor's forces are fighting to hold onto towns in the central Margibi and Bong counties - traditional government strongholds during Taylor's administration. LURD has moved in, seeking to dislodge those fighters and break the former government units before they have a chance to reconstitute themselves as a rebel force.

However, pushing them into the hinterland, farther north, will only facilitate this process. Taylor's forces retain some support in the countryside, and they might be getting outside assistance, although to what extent remains unclear. As the former government forces come under more pressure, they will cease their attempts to hold towns and instead adopt LURD's tactics - launching hit-and-run attacks on local villages, peacekeepers' bases and supply depots.

Top of Page

These articles and opinions of the authors do not constitute the endorsement of Nonviolent Change nor its publisher, Organization Development Institute, or any of its staff, nor of CirclePoint which is housing the Nonviolent Change Journal.

©2002.2003. All rights reserve. The Nonviolent Change Journal is published by the Research/Action Team on Nonviolent Large Systems Change - an interorganizational and international project of The Organization Development Institute.

Permissions: Reposting and reprints are encouraged, as long as proper source acknowledgement is given. As a courtesy, please let us know that you are reprinting or electronically reposting. It helps us know of the interest level. Thank you.